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While the US dithered over aid, Ukraine had a robust argument for prosecuting the war pretty much as it pleased. "Taking out a particular refinery is not going to immediately undermine Russia's war effort," said Dailey, the RAND strategist. "But consistently putting pressure on Russia's oil sector would have a significant impact on Russia's ability to fight this war." AdvertisementVakulenko, in his article, also noted that that strikes on Russian oil refineries have "little impact on Russian export earnings." Later, Ukraine said that its attacks had reduced Russian oil production and processing by 12%.
Persons: , Ann Marie Dailey, Rafael Loss, Joe Biden's, Marina Miron, Dailey, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Olga Tokariuk, Tokariuk, Donald Trump, Miron, Whittling, Celeste Wallander, Lloyd Austin, Sergey Vakulenko, There's, Sir Tony Radakin, Biden, James Patton Rogers, Patton Rogers Organizations: Service, White, Telegraph, Business, RAND Corporation, European Council, Foreign Relations, Washington Post, Department of, King's College, London's, House, Carnegie, RAND, Financial, Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute, Ukraine Locations: Ukraine, Krasnodar, King's College London, Russia
Less than 500 square miles of Ukrainian land has changed hands this year, per a New York Times analysis. AdvertisementAdvertisementOnly 0.2% of Ukraine's landmass has changed hands this year, according to an analysis by The New York Times, based on data from the Institute for the Study of War. 188 square miles is about the size of Albuquerque, New Mexico's largest city, which has a total area of 189.5 square miles, according to the US Census Bureau. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn contrast, Ukraine has a total landmass of about 233,030 square miles. The report shows Russia capturing about 100 square miles per month earlier this year, coinciding with its winter offensive campaign to capture the eastern Donbas region.
Persons: , Marina Miron Organizations: New York Times, Russia, Service, The New York Times, Institute for, Census, US, Kiel Institute, King's College London, Times Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Albuquerque , New
Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Josh Holder | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +10 min
Frontline on Jan. 1, 2023 Kyiv UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK HELD BY RUSSIA DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK HELD BY RUSSIA DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK HELD BY RUSSIA DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA Kyiv UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Bakhmut DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Bakhmut DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Bakhmut DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA Kyiv UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Robotyne DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Robotyne DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK Robotyne DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA Kyiv UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro River LUHANSK DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA The front line in Ukraine changed little last winter. Amount of territory Russia gained 20,000 square miles 10,000 Russia’s winter offensive captured about 100 square miles per month. Amount of territory Ukraine gained Amount of territory Russia gained 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 sq. miles Amount of territory Ukraine gained Amount of territory Russia gained 10,000 sq. Since Jan. 1, Ukraine gained: 143 square miles Russia gained: 331 square miles Net gain: 188 square miles Since Jan. 1, Ukraine gained: 143 square miles Russia gained: 331 square miles Net gain: 188 square milesWhen all the territorial changes are added together, Russia controls an additional 100 square miles of Ukraine, compared to Jan. 1, 2023.
Persons: Jan, Marina Miron, “ It’s, , Ukraine’s, Miron, Abrams Organizations: RUSSIA DONETSK, DONETSK, Territory Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine’s, New York Times, Institute for, American, Kyiv, Queens, King’s College London, Challenger Locations: Ukraine, UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro, LUHANSK, KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro, KHERSON CRIMEA, DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA UKRAINE KHARKIV Dnipro, DONETSK Zaporizhzhia KHERSON CRIMEA, LUHANSK DONETSK, Russia, Territory, Kherson, Kharkiv, Ukrainian, NYC, Kyiv, New York City, Ukraine’s, Switzerland, Crimea, Robotyne, Verbove, Britain
Budanov hinted that Ukraine had plans to retake the occupied peninsula of Crimea in an interview with The War Zone, published on Saturday. It is the latest move in a weeks-long effort to penetrate Russia's southern line of defense. On Wednesday, Ukrainian troops breached Russia's main defensive line with armored vehicles for the first time. Tarnavsky recognized that his troops were not moving slower than expected in the grinding counteroffensive. "Not as fast as it was expected, not like in the movies about the Second World War," he said.
Persons: Kyrylo Budanov Organizations: Army Locations: Russian, Crimea, Russia, Sevastopol, Ukraine
Ukraine breached Russia's defensive line on Wednesday and was able to deploy vehicles past it. It was a major achievement, but analysts said Russia would respond with a harsh counterattack. It was a major dent in the so-called "Surovikin Line", but there are more layers of defense to go. AdvertisementAdvertisement"This is the first major crack in their defense … of course, the Russians should be worried," he said. An official cited by the state-run RIA Novosti agency said that Ukraine had tried to breach Russia's lines but was forced to retreat.
Persons: Marina Miron, Franz, Stefan Gady, Gady, Michael Kofman, Kofman, — Johan Huovinen Organizations: Service, Ukrainian, Department of, King's College London, Street, Institute for International Strategic Studies, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Swedish Defense University, RIA Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Verbove, Zaporizhzhia
US officials are growing frustrated with how Ukraine is fighting the war, The New York Times said. If Ukraine wants to speed up its counteroffensive, it will need to change tactics, they said. However, experts are worried that such unrealistic expectations could mean Ukraine gets less support from Western countries going forward, putting the counteroffensive in jeopardy. "Ukraine's Western partners have every reason to expect a return on the considerable military aid they have provided over the past year-and-a-half. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Instead, Ukraine's lack of progress over the past two months should serve as a wake-up call for Western leaders.
Persons: Ukraine Ed Ram, Insider's Ryan Pickrell, it's, Marina Miron, David Lewis, Lewis, Maksym Skrypchenko Organizations: New York Times, Service, Washington, Getty, Department of, King's College London, Royal United Services Institute, NATO, Western Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Zaporizhzhia region, Kyiv
The West has been sending Ukraine weapons and armed vehicles since the start of the war. Now, as Ukraine is in the midst of its counteroffensive to regain crucial territory from Russia, many of these weapons are proving useful. Insider spoke to three military experts about which of the Western-provided weapons have been the most effective for Ukraine in the war. Only time will tell how useful the weapons really areIt is still unclear how Ukraine's counteroffensive will unfold, and how long the Western weapons will hold until Ukraine will need more. A top Ukrainian general told the BBC on Thursday that because Russia has littered the frontlines in south Ukraine with multi-layered minefields, Western tanks are proving ineffective.
Persons: Serhii, Ben, that's, Zelenskyy, Fabrizio Bensch, Oleksii Reznikov, Huseyn Aliyev, Javelin, of, Cave, Lewis Joly, Marina Miron, Bradley, Hanna Maliar, Aliyev, Alivey, Alivey said.It, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Tarnavskyi Organizations: Shadow, Service, Leopard, US, Patriot, Challenger, Ukraine, High, Artillery, Getty, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, RAND Corporation, Patriot Missile Systems, Army MIM, Defense, Research Center, East European Studies, Patriots, Ukrainian Defense Ministry Press Service, Javelin, AP, Military Times, Kyiv, Paris Air, Department of, King's College London, Soviet, Bradley Infantry Fighting, Bradley, BBC Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Germany, Russia, Donetsk Oblast, Ben Caves, Russian, Kherson, Rzeszow, Jasionka, Poland, Moscow, of Ukraine, Le Bourget, Paris, France, Ukrainian, Europe
Ukraine has received powerful Storm Shadow missiles from the UK, and appears to be putting them to use. A hole in the Chonhar bridge that connects Russian-held Kherson to Crimea, which Russia says was caused by a Storm Shadow missile strike. When that happens, "Storm Shadow will be absolutely critical in making it difficult for the Russians to react," he said. An RAF 41 Squadron Tornado GR4, preparing to test fire four Storm Shadow missiles over the Atlantic Ocean. Celebrity weaponsThere's no doubt that when wielded effectively, the Storm Shadow is a major piece of the counter-offensive puzzle.
Persons: Ben Wallace, Michael Clarke, Marina Miron, Clarke, Vladimir Saldo, Ukraine's, Jake Epstein, hasn't, It's, Oleksii Reznikov, Oleksii, Miron, Cpl Mark Parkinson, Ukraine ATACMS Organizations: Russian, Service, Royal United Services Institute, Storm, Defence Studies Department, London's King's, Storm Shadow, Raytheon, Russia's Ministry of Defense, Ukraine Defence, Forbes, 7th Bomber Regiment, UK Defence, RAF, Squadron Tornado, UK Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Defence, Street Journal Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Kherson, Crimea, Berdyansk, Russian, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian, Soviet, West
Ending their short-lived mutiny, fighters of the Wagner group began heading back to their bases late on Saturday in return for guarantees for their safety. Their commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will move to Belarus under the deal mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Peskov said Lukashenko had offered to mediate, with Putin's approval, because he had known Prigozhin personally for around 20 years. She said the swift ending of the turmoil indicated that Putin's rule would not be undermined by it alone. Russia's ministry of digital affairs recommended that IT, telecoms and media companies give employees the day off on Monday.
Persons: Belarus Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, Antony Blinken, Putin, Lukashenko, Prigozhin, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Biden, Trudeau, Zelenskiy, State Anthony Blinken, NBC's, Anton Vaganov, Dmitry, Oleg, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov, Marina Miron, Antonio Tajani, Messaggero, Brian Taylor, Russia's, Gareth Jones, Philippa Fletcher, Frank Jack Daniel, Jane Merriman, Chris Reese Organizations: Kremlin, U.S, Russia's Security, Canadian, Twitter, State, Press, Rostov, Reuters, Sunday, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Defence Ministry, King's College London's Defense Studies Department, Syracuse University, Thomson Locations: Belarus, Rostov, ROSTOV, VORONEZH, Russia, Russian, Moscow, Ukraine, China, Bolshevik, Africa
Insider spoke to four experts about who they think is currently winning the war in Ukraine. But two experts told Insider this appears to be unattainable. "So territory-wise, I don't think Zelenskyy has budged on his objective of liberating all of the occupied territories," Miron told Insider. Photo by Getty ImagesMilitary victoryIt is difficult to analyze who is currently winning from a military standpoint because a lot of hinges on Ukraine's counteroffensive, all experts told Insider. John E. Herbst, who was the US ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, told Insider that he believes that right now, the advantage lies with Ukraine.
Persons: , Ukraine —, Vladimir Putin, Marina Miron, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's, Miron, David Lewis, Yasuyoshi Chiba, University of Birmingham's Jaroslava Barbieri, " Barbieri, Lewis, John E . Herbst, Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Barbieri, Herbst, Putin Organizations: Service, Department of, King's College London, Institute for, Royal United Services Institute, Getty, Kyiv, University of Birmingham's, Getty Images, Washington Post, Ukraine Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Kyiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Sloviansk, AFP, Ukrainian, Irpin, Bakhmut
"(This) creates a very good defending position for Russians who expect Ukrainian offensive activity,” Matysiak said. Russia has denied responsibility and accused Ukraine of sabotaging the dam to deflect from what Moscow said were Ukrainian military failures. "For Russians the reason to do it would have been to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive, obviously. For Ukraine, the breach might have provided a way of distracting the Russians while Kyiv launches its counteroffensive, she added. Patricia Lewis, Research Director for International Security at the Chatham House think tank, said the situation helps Russia even if the Ukrainian counteroffensive later makes inroads.
Persons: Ruslan Strilets, Ben Barry, Maciej Matysiak, ” Matysiak, Strilets, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Heidarzadeh, Dmytro Kuleba, Marina Miron, Patricia Lewis, they're, Aiden Nulty, Ben Tavener, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Kyiv, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Stratpoints Foundation, University of Bath, Civil, Engineering, University of Warwick, Reserve, Nova Kakhovka, King's College, International Security, Chatham House, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Dnipro, Kyiv, Nova, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Russia, Kherson, Crimea, Britain, London
A drone attack in Moscow on Tuesday hit residential buildings — the first attack against the capitol since Russia invaded Ukraine. An expert told Insider the attack could be Ukraine giving Russia "a taste of its own medicine." Miron told Insider it makes sense for the drone attacks to follow those cross-border raids. The drone attacks could also be a way of "distracting the Russians" to "maintain a surprise initiative" for the counteroffensive, she added. Hours after the drone strikes on Tuesday, Podolyak made cryptic comments about the attacks, according to The Washington Post.
Russian forces are claiming victory in Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian leadership praised Wagner for its achievements in the devastated city of Bakhmut and promised the presentation of state awards. Casualty estimates likely skew significantly higher for Russian forces. AdvertisementAdvertisementBy April 11, Russian forces occupied over 76 percent of the city, according to a terrain assessment from the ISW think tank. An aerial view of Bakhmut, the site of heavy battles with Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Sunday, March 26, 2023.
Persons: it's, , Yevgeny Prigozhin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Gen, Oleksandr Syrskiy, Bakhmut, Wagner, ISW, Russia's, Vladimir Putin's, bode, Jeffrey Edmonds, Jens Stoltenberg, Marina Miron, Zelenskyy, Putin, Miron, Edmonds Organizations: Military, Service, Wagner Group, Institute for, CIA, AP Moscow, Russian, NATO, CNN, Moscow, AP, King's College London's Centre, Military Ethics, Bakhmut Locations: Bakhmut, Ukraine's Donetsk, Ukrainian, Moscow, Washington, Ukraine, Berlin, Soviet, Stalingrad, Russia, Kyiv, Donbas, Donetsk, Kramatorsk, Moreso
The battle has hurt Russian forces, and Wagner Group mercenaries are threatening to pull out. Wagner's withdrawal, however, suggests that Ukraine's risky decision to stay may be paying off, Russia experts told Insider. Ukrainian army snipers change their position facing Russian troops near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, May 2, 2023. Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, steadily surrounded Ukrainian positions, leaving only one road out of the city. Ukrainian army Grad multiple rocket launcher fires rockets at Russian positions in the frontline near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, May 3, 2023.
However, a US think tank has said it was "likely" a Russian false flag operation. As military experts told Insider, many details of the incident — and ultimate responsibility for it — remain unconfirmed as of Thursday. The think tank pointed to geolocated images of Russia installing advanced Pantsir surface-to-air missile defense systems around Moscow earlier this year. The Russian defense ministry is also working to further bolster these capabilities by year-end. The Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.
Russia claimed Wednesday that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin with a drone attack at the Kremlin. James Patton Rogers, a military historian and adviser to NATO on drones and warfare, said that "there's a few things that don't quite add up in this situation." Its ability to fly comparatively low, and slowly, would potentially help it evade some radar, Patton Rogers said. Claiming that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin would potentially "open up a new norm in the war," Patton Rogers said. Patton Rogers said he hasn't "seen any indication" that such groups have the capacity to use drones in their attacks.
According to an open-source intelligence analysis by Oryx, more than 1,780 Russian tanks have been destroyed, damaged, captured, or abandoned since Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022. Due to the design of many of Russia's tanks, a hit can cause the ammunition to detonate, killing the crew as the overpressure blows the top off. And it's "questionable" how well Russia's tanks are integrated into its overall operations. A destroyed Russian tank covered by snow stands in the village of Kamyanka, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023. AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, FileClearing a minefield is a slow, complicated, and deliberate process that involves several steps, but Russian tanks appear to drive right through them.
Several so-called "elite" Russian units have suffered heavy casualties on the battlefield in Ukraine. The 155th is only the latest so-called "elite" Russian unit to face serious setbacks on the battlefield. An abandoned Russian military tank left in the Ukrainian city of Balakliia after Russian Forces withdrew from the Kharkiv region on September 15, 2022. So I think it's much more of a blow to Russia's ground force's combat power than it is to their reputations." Russia's military leadership has at times faced criticism and even domestic outrage over its decision-making.
Military experts told Insider that Russia is pushing forward with an offensive in eastern Ukraine. Putin has a small window to attack before Kyiv receives advanced Western armor, but Ukraine will need to hold out. The challenge for Kyiv's forces will be absorbing assaults by Russia's numerically larger force long enough for more advanced Western tanks and artillery to arrive that could drive the Russians back. The Russians have that same problem, and Ukraine is trying to attack Russia's logistics system to degrade its ammunition stockpiles. Just as the Russians have been trying to exhaust Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainians have been delivering heavy losses to the Russians.
A Chinese spy balloon was detected over the US, the Department of Defense said. Experts say spy balloons can do things satellites can't, and China may have wanted to get caught. The balloon, the Pentagon said, was "most certainly" sent by China to spy on the US. What is the Chinese spy balloon? A spy balloon is a balloon with any kind of surveillance equipment is attached.
The conflict in Ukraine has emerged as the first major war involving drone use on both sides. By the late 1990s, Predator drones were being used by the US and NATO for reconnaissance missions in the Kosovo War. Ukraine has in many ways emerged as a guinea pig for drone warfare. Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesLater in the war, Russia began launching swarms of Iranian-made Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones, striking targets across Ukraine. Drones have significantly shortened the so-called kill chain, Cancian explained, helping troops swiftly locate targets and provide coordinates for artillery.
A group of Russian soldiers in Ukraine complained to the Ministry of Defense, The Insider reported. In a Telegram video, the men said they have no equipment and were thrown into a field "like dogs." Putin declared a mobilization last month, but some draftees said they get no training or equipment. The report comes more than a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of his country's military reservists. Last week, Putin said that around 16,000 mobilized men had already made it into combat in Ukraine.
Some, Putin said, are trained for as little as 10 days, leading commentators to conclude they were effectively cannon fodder. In Western armies, it would likely be impossible to die within a month of enlistment, because training lasts much longer than that. Radio Free Europe, the US-funded outlet, also reported deaths among newly-mobilized men, swiftly returned to Russia in body bags. Alberque said the mobilized troops probably could not fight effectively — and may never have been meant to. David Betz, a professor in the War Studies department, also at King's said that so few mobilized troops had arrived that their effective casualty rate was "zero."
Russian forces have used Iranian-made suicide drones to strike cities across Ukraine. Ukraine's defense ministry identified the drones that Russia used against the Ukrainian capital as the Iranian-made Shahed-136, a weapon which Russia calls the Geran-2. Russian forces have been using these suicide drones for over a month, and the frequency of use appears to be on the rise. According to an intelligence update from Britain's defense ministry, the 440-pound Shahed-136 drones are slow and carry a small explosive payload. It's not immediately clear how many drones Russian forces have in their arsenal.
Ukrainian officials identified the drones as Iranian-made loitering munitions, commonly called "suicide" or "kamikaze" drones. One military expert said Putin is purposely using these to spread "terror and chaos" among Ukrainians. In both cases, Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia used Iranian-made loitering munitions, or suicide drones. It's unclear how many Iranian-made drones Russia has in its arsenal. Ukrainian officials and Western heads of state took to social media and slammed Russia for the wave of attacks, especially the strikes on civilian centers.
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